Close Hatches' Defeat Opens BC Distaff Conversation

 Close Hatches’ uncharacteristically poor effort is puzzling after eight consecutive finishes in the exacta – including seven at the Grade 1 level.  Did the Bill Mott trainee hate the new Keeneland dirt surface that much, or is the effort cause for much greater concern?  While that question is unlikely to be answered before the Breeders’ Cup, astute handicappers will be paying close attention to each workout Close Hatches records leading up to Friday, October 31.  After finishing second to Beholder in the 2013 Distaff, Close Hatches will face that rival again as well as the three year-old sensation, Untapable

Untapable's figures may tell another story 

Along with Close Hatches, Untapable and Beholder figure to be the top three betting choices in the Distaff.  After trying males in the Haskell, Untapable rebounded to win the Grade 1 Cotillion in her last start, but her declining Beyer Speed Figures suggest she might not be in top for after looking dominant in the spring.  Of Untapable’s last six starts, the first three earned triple digit Beyer Speed Figures while each of the last three were sub-100, despite two grade 1 wins.  It’s also worth noting that Untapable’s worst performance to date (an eighth-place finish in last year’s BC Juvenile Fillies) was over the Santa Anita track, although she was running without Lasix. 

Beholder looks rock solid for title defense 

Beholder, the reigning champ, is fresh off a Grade 1 victory in the Zenyatta Stakes and has been nothing short of dominant on the Santa Anita track recording eight wins in nine starts, including five Grade 1 victories.  She is also the controlling speed of the race, but it’s unlikely she’ll be allowed to coast uncontested on the front as she did in last year’s Distaff.  Still, it looks impossible to bet against Beholder at this point – especially considering the recent struggles of her primary rivals.