Undefeated Shared Belief May be a Vulnerable Favorite in BC Classic

Shared Belief did what he had to do in the Awesome Again, claiming his seventh victory in as many career starts. Consequently, he will almost assuredly be the morning line favorite for the Classic despite looking less than stellar while beating Fed Biz by a neck and fully extending himself in the stretch to do so. To his credit, it was a gutsy effort after a wide trip, and he did win over the same track he’ll run on in the Classic, but the race casts significant doubt about whether Shared Belief is an elite horse on dirt (2 for 2 lifetime) considering trainer Jerry Hollendorfer’s post race comments about how his colt handled the track. “He didn’t seem to be getting hold of the track that well,” Hollendorfer said.

Undefeated, but overbet 

Uh oh. Is there a reason to believe he’ll handle it better next month while facing markedly better competition? Handicappers should view Shared Belief as a horse that must be taken seriously, but the idea of taking a short price on a three year-old that seems to prefer running on synthetic surfaces isn’t one that’s likely to excite many horse players. The point here is not to knock Shared Belief or suggest that he cannot win the Classic, but undefeated horses have a way of being overbet – particularly on big race days. 

Trying to beat the unbeaten  

At its core, successful horse playing is about finding vulnerable favorites and exploiting weaknesses in public opinion. Going against Shared Belief in the Classic could represent both of those ideas on racing’s biggest stage.